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Report
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I.
Background
II.
Nursing Supply Model
III.
Nursing Demand Model
IV.
Assessing the Adequacy of Future Supply
V.
Limitations of the Models and Areas for Future Research
VI.
References
Exhibits
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VI. References
Aiken,
L.H., Clarke, S.P., Sloane, D.M., Sochalski, J., and Silber,
J.H. (October 2002). Nurse staffing and patient mortality,
nurse burnout, and job dissatisfaction. Journal of the
American Medical Association, 288(16): 19871993.
American
Hospital Association. Hospital Statistics. Various
years.
American
Nurses Association. (2001). Analysis of American Nurses
Association Staffing Survey. Presentation by Cornerstone
Communications Group on February 6, 2001.
Askildsen,
J.E., Baltagi, B.H., and Holmas, T.H. (2002). Will Increased
Wages Reduce Shortage of Nurses? A Panel Data Analysis of
Nurses Labor Supply. Unpublished manuscript. Available
at <http://www.eco.rug.nl/~espe2002/Askildsen.pdf>.
Accessed September 2004.
Buerhaus,
P.I., Staiger, D.O., and Auerbach, D.I. (2000). Implications
of an aging registered nurse workforce. Journal of the
American Medical Association, 283(22): 29482954.
Bureau
of Health Professions. (2001). The Registered Nurse Population,
March 2000: Findings from the National Sample Survey of
Registered Nurses.
Bureau
of Health Professions. (2002). Projected Supply, Demand,
and Shortages of Registered Nurses: 20002020.
Bureau
of Health Professions. (2004). Nursing Supply Model:
Technical Report and User Guide. Report prepared by
The Lewin Group for the National Center for Health Workforce
Analysis.
Bureau
of Health Professions. (2004). Nursing Demand Model:
Development and Baseline Projections. Report prepared
by The Lewin Group for the National Center for Health Workforce
Analysis.
Bureau
of Health Professions. (2004). Nursing Demand Model User
Guide. Report prepared by The Lewin Group for the National
Center for Health Workforce Analysis.
Dumpe,
M.L., Herman, J., and Young, S.W. (1998). Forecasting the
nursing workforce in a dynamic healthcare market. Nursing
Economics, 16(4): 170179.
Fritz,
M.S. (1999). The Nursing Demand-Based Requirements Forecasting
Model. 10th Federal Forecasters Conference,
1999: Papers and Proceedings.
Hogan,
P.F., Dall, T.D., Smith, S.G., Mackin, P.C., Mackie, C.D.,
Darling, K.L., Harris, D.A., McCloy, R.A., and Statman,
M.A. (1995). Conceptual Framework for Analyzing and Developing
a Compensation System. Report prepared for the Eighth
Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation Taskforce.
InterStudy,
InterStudy Competitive Edge. Various years.
Lane,
J., and Gohmann, S. (1995). Shortage or surplus: Economic
and non-economic approaches to the analysis of nursing labor
markets. Southern Economic Journal, 61: 644654.
Minino,
A.M., Arias, E., Kochanek, K.D., Murphy, S.L., and Smith,
B.L. (September 2002). Deaths: Final data for 2000. National
Vital Statistics Reports, 50(15), National Center for
Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD.
National
Council of State Boards of Nursing, Inc. 2000 Licensure
and Examination Statistics.
Prescott,
P.A. (2000). The enigmatic nursing workforce. Journal
of Nursing Administration, 30(2): 5965.
Robinson,
E.S., and Mee, C.L. (2003). Nursing 2003 Salary Survey.
Nursing 2003, 33(10):5053. <http://www.nursingcenter.com/home/index.asp>.
Accessed September 2004.
Seago,
J.A., Ash, M., Spetz, J., Coffman, J., and Grumbach, K.
(2001). Hospital registered nurse shortages: Environmental,
patient, and institutional predictors. Health Services
Research, 36(5): 831852.
Sloan,
F.A., and Richupan, S. (1975). Short-run supply responses
of professional nurses: A microanalysis. The Journal
of Human Resources, 10(2):241-257.
Spetz,
J. (1999). The effects of managed care and prospective payment
on the demand for hospital nurses: Evidence from California.
Health Services Research, 34(5): 9931010.
Spetz,
J., and Given, R. (2003). The future of the nurse shortage:
will wage increases close the gap? Health Affairs,
22(6):199206.
Appendix:
State-Level Supply, Demand, and Shortage Projections
Exhibit
A-1. Baseline FTE RN Supply, by State and Year, 2000 to
2020
| STATE |
SSRN
Estimate |
Projection |
Change
from
20002020 |
| 2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
| AK |
4,200 |
3,800 |
3,200 |
2,500 |
2,000 |
-52% |
| AL |
29,900 |
33,700 |
36,600 |
38,200 |
39,100 |
31% |
| AR |
16,400 |
18,100 |
19,300 |
19,800 |
19,900 |
21% |
| AZ |
29,000 |
30,100 |
30,700 |
30,500 |
30,100 |
4% |
| CA |
155,500 |
156,200 |
153,300 |
148,200 |
144,300 |
-7% |
| CO |
28,100 |
28,300 |
27,200 |
25,100 |
23,000 |
-18% |
| CT |
28,000 |
25,400 |
22,900 |
19,900 |
17,200 |
-39% |
| DC |
7,300 |
6,900 |
6,500 |
5,900 |
5,400 |
-26% |
| DE |
6,100 |
6,300 |
6,300 |
6,100 |
5,800 |
-5% |
| FL |
108,100 |
111,100 |
112,000 |
110,200 |
106,600 |
-1% |
| GA |
49,400 |
49,500 |
48,200 |
45,300 |
41,800 |
-15% |
| HI |
7,200 |
7,700 |
7,900 |
8,100 |
8,200 |
14% |
| IA |
25,200 |
26,300 |
26,600 |
26,000 |
25,000 |
-1% |
| ID |
7,000 |
7,300 |
7,400 |
7,300 |
7,100 |
1% |
| IL |
88,100 |
88,000 |
85,600 |
81,900 |
77,100 |
-12% |
| IN |
41,400 |
41,800 |
41,600 |
40,400 |
38,500 |
-7% |
| KS |
20,600 |
21,600 |
22,100 |
21,800 |
21,100 |
2% |
| KY |
28,800 |
32,300 |
34,700 |
35,500 |
35,300 |
23% |
| LA |
30,200 |
34,100 |
37,200 |
39,100 |
39,800 |
32% |
| MA |
63,600 |
62,700 |
60,100 |
56,000 |
51,400 |
-19% |
| MD |
36,400 |
36,500 |
35,600 |
33,800 |
31,800 |
-13% |
| ME |
11,200 |
11,600 |
11,600 |
11,100 |
10,500 |
-6% |
| MI |
70,000 |
72,400 |
72,000 |
68,900 |
66,000 |
-6% |
| MN |
39,200 |
41,000 |
41,800 |
41,200 |
39,700 |
1% |
| MO |
44,400 |
45,600 |
45,700 |
44,200 |
42,800 |
-4% |
| MS |
18,400 |
20,900 |
22,600 |
23,600 |
23,800 |
29% |
| MT |
6,400 |
6,500 |
6,500 |
6,300 |
5,900 |
-8% |
| NC |
59,900 |
64,500 |
67,400 |
68,600 |
68,000 |
14% |
| ND |
5,400 |
5,700 |
5,800 |
5,800 |
5,600 |
4% |
| NE |
13,300 |
14,100 |
14,700 |
14,900 |
14,900 |
12% |
| NH |
9,300 |
9,500 |
9,300 |
8,800 |
8,100 |
-13% |
| NJ |
60,400 |
58,200 |
55,000 |
50,500 |
44,900 |
-26% |
| NM |
9,600 |
10,500 |
11,000 |
11,300 |
11,500 |
20% |
| NV |
9,000 |
9,300 |
9,200 |
8,700 |
8,100 |
-10% |
| NY |
138,100 |
142,600 |
142,300 |
137,400 |
131,500 |
-5% |
| OH |
86,900 |
89,300 |
88,900 |
85,500 |
79,700 |
-8% |
| OK |
18,900 |
20,600 |
21,500 |
22,100 |
22,500 |
19% |
| OR |
21,800 |
22,600 |
22,400 |
21,100 |
19,800 |
-9% |
| PA |
111,800 |
105,900 |
99,200 |
90,600 |
80,400 |
-28% |
| RI |
9,300 |
9,300 |
9,000 |
8,400 |
7,900 |
-15% |
| SC |
23,400 |
25,100 |
25,900 |
26,200 |
26,000 |
11% |
| SD |
7,000 |
7,600 |
7,900 |
7,900 |
7,800 |
11% |
| TN |
40,900 |
42,700 |
42,800 |
41,800 |
40,100 |
-2% |
| TX |
107,600 |
115,300 |
118,700 |
119,000 |
118,500 |
10% |
| UT |
11,400 |
12,900 |
14,100 |
14,900 |
15,400 |
35% |
| VA |
46,300 |
47,600 |
47,600 |
46,300 |
44,000 |
-5% |
| VT |
4,900 |
5,000 |
4,800 |
4,400 |
4,000 |
-18% |
| WA |
37,900 |
38,100 |
37,300 |
35,100 |
33,000 |
-13% |
| WI |
41,300 |
42,900 |
43,300 |
42,200 |
40,100 |
-3% |
| WV |
13,200 |
14,200 |
14,600 |
14,600 |
14,000 |
6% |
| WY |
3,200 |
3,300 |
3,300 |
3,300 |
3,300 |
3% |
| U.S.
a |
1,890,700 |
1,942,500 |
1,941,200 |
1,886,100 |
1,808,000 |
-4% |
a
Due to rounding, national totals might fail to equal the
sum across states.
Exhibit
A-2. Baseline FTE RN Demand, by State and Year, 2000 to
2020
| State |
SSRN
Estimate |
Projection |
Change
from 20002020 |
| 1996 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
| AK |
4,400 |
4,300 |
4,900 |
5,500 |
6,100 |
6,700 |
56% |
| AL |
30,900 |
31,400 |
33,900 |
36,800 |
40,300 |
44,400 |
41% |
| AR |
16,100 |
18,500 |
20,200 |
22,000 |
24,300 |
26,900 |
45% |
| AZ |
28,900 |
34,000 |
38,700 |
43,200 |
48,500 |
54,700 |
61% |
| CA |
159,500 |
165,500 |
178,700 |
200,900 |
228,900 |
260,900 |
58% |
| CO |
27,500 |
30,000 |
34,000 |
38,100 |
42,500 |
47,500 |
58% |
| CT |
28,200 |
30,200 |
31,800 |
34,000 |
36,600 |
39,600 |
31% |
| DC |
8,500 |
8,800 |
8,900 |
9,500 |
10,200 |
11,000 |
25% |
| DE |
5,800 |
6,400 |
7,000 |
7,600 |
8,100 |
8,800 |
38% |
| FL |
107,300 |
115,500 |
129,300 |
144,700 |
164,300 |
187,800 |
63% |
| GA |
48,700 |
52,800 |
58,400 |
64,600 |
71,600 |
79,500 |
51% |
| HI |
8,200 |
10,000 |
11,100 |
12,400 |
13,900 |
15,700 |
57% |
| IA |
24,400 |
27,100 |
28,600 |
30,000 |
31,800 |
34,100 |
26% |
| ID |
6,000 |
6,200 |
7,300 |
8,200 |
9,200 |
10,500 |
69% |
| IL |
88,400 |
85,200 |
89,600 |
94,900 |
101,300 |
109,000 |
28% |
| IN |
40,800 |
43,000 |
46,600 |
49,800 |
53,500 |
57,400 |
33% |
| KS |
19,000 |
20,200 |
21,500 |
23,100 |
24,900 |
27,000 |
34% |
| KY |
26,900 |
29,200 |
31,200 |
33,500 |
36,300 |
39,400 |
35% |
| LA |
30,700 |
31,800 |
34,200 |
37,100 |
40,600 |
44,600 |
40% |
| MA |
59,900 |
68,300 |
71,700 |
76,200 |
81,700 |
87,800 |
29% |
| MD |
38,300 |
36,800 |
39,400 |
42,600 |
46,100 |
50,000 |
36% |
| ME |
11,400 |
12,400 |
13,100 |
14,100 |
15,300 |
16,800 |
35% |
| MI |
69,100 |
67,700 |
71,300 |
75,100 |
79,600 |
84,300 |
25% |
| MN |
35,400 |
39,200 |
42,600 |
46,200 |
50,400 |
55,300 |
41% |
| MO |
45,000 |
51,600 |
54,900 |
58,600 |
63,100 |
68,200 |
32% |
| MS |
18,700 |
19,900 |
21,400 |
23,100 |
25,400 |
28,000 |
41% |
| MT |
5,800 |
5,500 |
6,300 |
7,000 |
7,800 |
8,800 |
60% |
| NC |
54,400 |
61,500 |
68,400 |
75,500 |
83,700 |
92,900 |
51% |
| ND |
5,900 |
5,800 |
6,200 |
6,700 |
7,300 |
8,000 |
38% |
| NE |
13,400 |
14,800 |
15,900 |
17,100 |
18,500 |
20,200 |
36% |
| NH |
9,800 |
10,500 |
11,500 |
12,600 |
13,800 |
15,100 |
44% |
| NJ |
59,700 |
65,600 |
69,700 |
74,600 |
80,400 |
87,300 |
33% |
| NM |
10,200 |
11,000 |
12,500 |
14,100 |
15,900 |
18,000 |
64% |
| NV |
8,800 |
10,200 |
12,100 |
13,300 |
14,700 |
16,200 |
59% |
| NY |
148,100 |
151,000 |
156,000 |
163,800 |
174,000 |
185,700 |
23% |
| OH |
86,400 |
90,500 |
95,700 |
101,000 |
107,300 |
113,700 |
26% |
| OK |
18,400 |
18,400 |
20,000 |
22,000 |
24,300 |
27,000 |
47% |
| OR |
21,100 |
22,000 |
24,800 |
27,700 |
31,100 |
35,100 |
60% |
| PA |
107,100 |
110,200 |
115,000 |
120,300 |
127,200 |
135,200 |
23% |
| RI |
9,300 |
10,900 |
11,400 |
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