Exhibit 5.13. Forecasts of FTE Nurse Demand: Status Quo Scenario

  Setting Base Year Forecasts
1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 % Increase 2000-2020
Registered Nurses
Total
1,889,326
1,964,920
2,075,690
2,198,904
2,342,782
2,505,747
28
Hospitals
1,165,688
1,233,403
1,303,924
1,386,817
1,486,728
1,599,109
30
ST, inpatient
828,316
875,173
925,824
986,312
1,059,597
1,142,113
31
ST, outpatient
69,281
73,068
75,981
79,209
83,036
87,170
19
ST, emergency
88,699
92,989
96,265
99,918
104,133
108,633
17
LT hospitals
179,392
192,173
205,854
221,377
239,962
261,193
36
Nursing facilities
147,722
160,442
174,860
189,857
204,611
221,091
38
Doctors’ offices
145,941
154,727
160,804
166,904
173,528
180,386
17
Home health
145,754
115,393
122,744
130,594
141,294
155,675
35
Occupational health
19,180
20,040
20,984
21,826
22,241
22,390
12
School health
53,628
57,638
59,657
60,419
61,060
62,244
8
Public health
94,194
99,758
103,520
107,337
111,491
115,785
16
Nurse education
43,322
44,982
47,520
50,279
53,477
57,101
27
Other health care
73,898
78,537
81,678
84,872
88,354
91,966
17
Licensed Practical Nurses
Total
578,444
604,151
644,026
687,281
734,242
787,329
30
Hospitals
145,405
154,105
163,768
175,206
188,937
204,385
33
ST hospitals
128,269
135,817
144,262
154,288
166,317
179,821
32
LT hospitals
17,135
18,288
19,506
20,919
22,620
24,564
34
Nursing facilities
194,670
211,863
231,831
253,290
274,568
298,689
41
Home health
53,633
42,405
45,178
48,151
52,150
57,491
36
Other health care
184,736
195,778
203,250
210,633
218,588
226,764
16
Nurse Aides/Auxiliaries
Total
1,487,915
1,487,792
1,593,810
1,708,561
1,835,164
1,983,582
33
Hospitals
274,029
289,662
306,621
326,545
350,653
377,971
30
ST hospitals
218,640
230,699
243,898
259,508
278,396
299,731
30
LT hospitals
55,389
58,963
62,723
67,037
72,257
78,239
33
Nursing facilities
607,127
660,490
721,720
787,314
852,441
926,112
40
Home health
391,798
309,643
329,242
350,336
378,876
417,177
35
Other health care
214,961
227,997
236,228
244,366
253,193
262,322
15

Source: The Nursing Demand Model: Development and Baseline Forecasts (Dall and Hogan, 2002).