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Physician Supply and Demand: Projections to 2020
Printer-friendly (Adobe/pdf) Physician Supply & Demand Report
Background
Physician Supply Model
Current Physician Workforce
New Entrants and Choice of Medical Specialty
Separations from the Physician Workforce
Trends in Physician Productivity
Physician Supply Projections
Physician Requirements Model
Growth and Aging of the Population
Medical Insurance Trends
Economic Factors
Other Potential Determinants of Demand for Physicians
Physician Requirements Projections
Assessing the Adequacy of Current and Future Supply
Summary
References
[It is a] "daunting enterprise...to estimate the physician surplus or shortage one or two decades into the future. Any variables in the equation can change over time, sometimes in unforeseen ways."
Uwe Reinhardt (2002)
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